The price movement of SOL/USD in July 2025 showed a classic technical signal of a bullish divergence. As of July 21st, the price of SOL rebounded from the low point of $132.5 at the beginning of the month to $148.2, an increase of 11.8%. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 33 to 41 during the same period. However, when the price pulled back to $142, the RSI instead rose to 45, forming three consecutive divergence patterns. On-chain data verifies capital inflows: The net outflow of SOL from centralized exchanges reached 6.2 million (approximately 920 million US dollars) in a single week. The holdings of giant whale addresses increased by 15%, while the open interest of futures contracts decreased by 8%, indicating the feature of spot accumulation. a typical case is that on July 17th, there was a single market buy order of 5 million US dollars on the Coinbase platform, which pushed the exchange rate of “sol a usd” to jump by 3.2% instantly, but the selling pressure in the order book did not increase simultaneously.
The distribution of trading volume reveals changes in market structure. Spot trading volume reached an average of 2.8 billion US dollars per day in the range of 135 to 140 US dollars, which was 1.8 times the resistance zone. The proportion of buying orders jumped from 45% to 62%. In the derivatives data, the open interest of SOL call options on the Deribit exchange increased by 40% in 7 days, among which the contract with an exercise price of $160 rose by 300%, and the time value decay rate dropped to 1.2% per day. Market maker behavior indicates key support: Jump Trading sets a $2.5 million buffer layer in the $140 order book, with a single absorption selling pressure capacity of 5,000 SOL. The historical pattern can be compared to the divergence case in January 2024, when SOL soared by 80% within two weeks. Statistical samples show that the average return rate over 30 days after such a signal is triggered is 35%, with a winning rate of 72%.
The upgrading of fundamentals and the improvement of liquidity form a dual catalytic effect. The Firedancer upgrade on the Solana mainnet was activated on July 10th. The peak processing capacity has increased from 65,000 TPS to 110,000 TPS, the transaction failure rate has dropped from 8.5% to 0.9%, and the Gas fee has stabilized at $0.0005. The ecological TVL increased by 32% simultaneously to 4.8 billion US dollars. The average daily trading volume of the leading DEX Orca exceeded 1.5 billion US dollars, and the trading frequency of the arbitrage robot increased from 20 times per second to 50 times. Partner cases include Visa’s announcement on July 15th that it would adopt the Solana settlement network to handle 10% of cross-border payments, with an estimated cost reduction of 40%. After the news, the 24-hour traffic of the “sol a usd” trading pair increased by 150%.
The risk dimension needs to pay attention to the early warning indicators of deviation failure. The current SOL/USD volatility Index (BVI) stands at 76%, higher than the industry average of 58%. If the price breaks below the key support level of $135 (the lowest point in May), stop-loss orders could trigger an intraday fluctuation of 8%. Regulatory uncertainty remains: If the US SEC reclassifies SOL as a security (with an estimated probability of 25%), compliance costs may increase by 30%. Technical observation points include: If the MACD histogram Narrows for three consecutive days or the RSI drops below 40, the probability of divergence failure rises to 60%. The quantitative model suggests building positions in multiple positions at $145, with a stop-loss set at $134.5 (-7%). The target range of $180 to $200 corresponds to an expected return of 20% to 38%, but it is necessary to control the position of a single currency to no more than 15% of the total assets.